Global photovoltaic (PV) installations will land in a range of 600 to 660 gigawatts-direct current (GWdc) in 2024, according to the latest analysis from polysilicon market expert Bernreuter Research. “Once market participants come to the conclusion that the crash of the solar module price has reached its bottom, demand will accelerate,” says Johannes Bernreuter, Head of Bernreuter Research and author of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report.
Top 6 solar module suppliers aim for 40% growth rate
Bernreuter’s new forecast is supported by the shipment targets of the world’s top six solar module suppliers for 2024. On average, Jinko, Longi, Trina, JA Solar, Tongwei and Canadian Solar aim for a growth rate of 40%. Based on global PV installations of 444 GWdc in 2023, this rate would result in a newly installed capacity of 622 GWdc in 2024.
“Even if the leading players gain market share as Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers struggle in the current low-price environment, it is likely that new PV installations will exceed 600 GWdc this year,” says Bernreuter. After most of the top six suppliers remained behind their shipment goals in 2023, the analyst assumes that they have been more cautious with their targets for 2024, which leaves room for upside potential.
Indicators on the supply side point to a range of 630 GWdc to 660 GWdc
“On the supply side, all indicators point to the upper half of our forecast range,” explains Bernreuter. “I am optimistic that demand will catch up in the second half of the year, fueled by the record-low module price level.”
Global PV installations of 630 GWdc to 660 GWdc would even top the high scenario of 620 GWdc featured in Bernreuter’s Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report. “Our new analysis confirms the more aggressive forecast approach we have adopted in the report,” concludes Bernreuter. “With a market share of more than 50%, China will continue to drive global PV installations forward.”
About Bernreuter Research — Bernreuter Research was founded in 2008 by Johannes Bernreuter, one of the most reputable photovoltaic journalists in Germany, to publish global polysilicon market reports. As early as 2001, Bernreuter authored his first analysis of an upcoming polysilicon bottleneck and new production processes. Since publishing its first report in 2010, Bernreuter Research has gained a reputation for providing the most comprehensive and accurate polysilicon reports on the market.
