French prompt power prices fell further as the week on the back of a steady near term weather forecast and milder temperatures on the horizon, but traders said some concern over German renewable output may have slowed the decline.
Baseload power for Friday delivery closed Eur4.75 lower than the previous close at Eur61.75/MWh Thursday, while the peakload contract closed down a further Eur3.50 at Eur69.50/MWh.
Epex Spot settled the same contracts considerably higher than OTC trade at Eur66.06/MWh and Eur73.34/MWh.
Markets sources said that while the prompt remains driven by and sensitive to the latest temperature forecast, and although supply margins appear fairly healthy, there remains some underlying concern around waning German renewable output, to what one trader described as a "critical" level.
German wind power output in average peakload hours has been falling all week and is forecast to fall by a further 1.2 GW overnight to 4.2 GW Friday, according to market sources, while solar output is expected to drop by 2 GW to 8 GW.
The market has been calling on more expensive gas-fired generation to compensate for the shortfall.
CustomWeather data showed Wednesday that temperatures in Paris are still forecast to remain 5-6 degrees Celsius below the seasonal average of 6-14 C through the end of the week, before rising to 1 C above normal by next Wednesday.
Maximum French demand is currently pegged at 75.3 GW, falling to 72.7 GW Friday, the latest RTE data shows, before starting the new week at 74.2 GW and falling to 69.9 GW by Thursday as temperatures rise.
On the supply side, French nuclear output is pegged at 48.4 GW for Friday, holding at around 46.5 GW all next week, while gas-fired generation is steady at around 3.8 GW, as is coal at 4.8 GW over the same period.
In the Netherlands, temperatures in Amsterdam are also forecast to hold as forecast at around 3-5 C below the seasonal norm of 3-12 C through to the end of the week, before rising to 1 C above average next Wednesday.
Dutch day-ahead baseload closed 50 euro cent higher on the day at Eur60/MWh Thursday, and Eur2.25 higher at Eur68.75/MWh in peakload. APX settled the same prices around Eur4 higher than OTC levels at Eur64.91/MWh in base and Eur72.34/MWh in peak.
