Britain could invest more than £100bn in renewable energy over the next decade and still fail to meet an EU target on clean technology, the government's own renewables advisers have warned.
The Renewables Advisory Board (RAB), made up of senior figures from across the industry, says the best the UK could realistically hope for is to generate 14% of its energy from sustainable sources by 2020. The EU has set Britain a target of 15% renewable energy generation by then.
The government will next week publish a consultation on how it aims to meet the EU target – which is expected to outline measures to speed the installation of wind turbines and boost the take-up of domestic-scale renewable technologies such as solar panels.
But the industry analysis says even significant policy changes and massive new investment will not be enough. Government insiders admit they are unlikely to hit the 15% figure, and officials are already pushing for Britain to be allowed to offset some of the target by investing in clean energy schemes abroad.
In a report on the issue the RAB says 14% renewable energy could be achieved by 2020 through "significant but achievable policy changes".
It says: "If the 15% target is to be approached we need to establish a different energy world with new policy, economic and social drivers. Many of these changes will need to be radical and will require, above all else, political leadership and a determination to succeed."
Current policies will produce just 6% renewable energy by 2020, it says.
The bulk of the changes will fall upon the electricity industry. The EU target applies to all energy sources, but experts say there is little scope for rapid take-up of green technology in the transport and heat-generation sectors. That means up to 40% of Britain's electricity must come from renewable sources by 2020 – eight times the current level – to stand a chance of hitting the overall target.
Brian Mark, director of sustainability at Fulcrum Consulting, who sits on the advisory board, said: "The figures on electricity show the extent of the challenge. This [report] was a true attempt to give a figure which is achievable with further measures."
To reach the 14% figure, the report assumes huge increases in the use of wind, biomass and energy from waste. The amount of electricity generated by onshore wind farms needs to jump from 1,850MW at the moment to 13,000MW by 2020. Offshore wind capacity needs to be 18,000MW by 2020, up from 394MW operational now.
On domestic renewables, the analysis says one home in every 20 would need to be fitted with solar panels to heat water, and one in 38 would need photovoltaic (PV) panels to generate electricity by 2020. "The UK is starting from a very low base in this sector," the report noted. Last year Germany installed 130,000 PV panels, while the UK fitted 270.
The final bill for Britain's required renewables revolution, the report notes, would be "expected to exceed £100bn". It is not clear how the money would be found, but a large proportion of the investment could be passed on to consumers as higher energy bills.
The RAB says there is now an "urgent" need for studies on how to extend and reinforce the National Grid to make it suitable for large-scale renewables generation. "Arguably, we are already too late [to do these]," it says. Industry experts say the UK will need 34,000MW of new transmission infrastructure to channel the power from new renewable projects. Completed wind farms in Scotland are already standing idle because they have not yet been connected.
The report also highlights the recent spate of objections to wind farms by the Ministry of Defence due to concerns over interference with radar systems as "precisely the form of policy instability which seriously undermines investor confidence".
Britain could still conceivably reach the 15% target but only through options such as a contribution from a proposed new tidal barrage across the Severn estuary. Privately, some industry sources say the target is unrealistic, and that Britain could struggle to reach even 10% renewable energy by 2020.
Any weakening of Britain's targets on transport biofuels in the face of concerns over sustainability would also make the target harder to reach.
Britain's energy policy also comes under fire today from a parliamentary committee, which says a lack of urgency from government and the electricity industry threatens UK efforts to tackle climate change.
Phil Willis, chairman of the Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills select committee, which produced the report, said: "Unless the government starts to address some of these concerns then all these targets are pie in the sky."
Robin Webster, of Friends of the Earth, said: "The government must deliver a strong green energy strategy instead of trying to wriggle out of EU renewable energy targets. Next week's renewable energy consultation must set out a blueprint for a greener future.
"Britain's abundant wind and wave power could create a new industry worth millions of pounds and thousands of jobs, cut carbon dioxide emissions and wean us off our increasingly expensive fossil fuel dependency."
EU target for UK's renewable energy – such as solar power for office buildings – above generation by 2020
About this articleClose This article appeared in the Guardian on Thursday June 19 2008 on p8 of the UK news section. It was last updated at 00:10 on June 19 2008.
