EU carbon dioxide emissions regulated by the EU Emissions Trading System fell by 2.4% in 2011 compared with 2010, according to a Platts analysis of partial European Commission figures released Monday.
The EC's figures provide a once-yearly picture of independently verified CO2 data from power plants and factories covered by the system.
Under Europe's flagship tool to reduce industrial CO2 emissions — worth $120 billion (Eur90 billion) in 2010 — companies must have their CO2 emissions verified by third-party auditing companies and must surrender one EU Allowance for every metric ton of CO2 they emit to the atmosphere, on an annual basis.
The verified CO2 figures therefore provide the only direct fundamental demand-side data for the carbon market across all sectors regulated by the program.
Carbon analysts had broadly expected an increase in CO2 emissions of 0.6-0.7% in 2011 from the previous year, meaning Monday's figures were taken as a bearish signal for prices.
EUA forward contracts for December 2012 delivery on the over-the counter market fell sharply Monday and were quoted at Eur6.37/mt ($8.49/mt) at the close, down 77 euro cent or 10.9% from Friday's close, according to Platts assessments.
Monday's assessment of the 2011 EU ETS CO2 emissions data is based on figures reported recently to the EC by most of the more than 11,000 industrial facilities regulated by the system.
The annual EU ETS data reporting deadline is March 31. The figures released Monday are raw installation-level CO2 data with no accompanying analysis by the EC.
The EC is expected to publish a series of updated data during April and May as further plants that were missing from Monday's figures report their emissions.
The EC is set to release final aggregated 2011 CO2 figures on May 15.
PARTIAL FIGURES REVEAL OVERALL ANNUAL TREND
The EC's figures show that in 2011, verified CO2 emissions from plants that reported both year's data stood at 1.7026 billion mt, compared with 1.7453 billion mt in 2010 — a drop of 42.7 million mt.
Although the figures released by the EC Monday were incomplete, a plant-by-plant analysis of the data from only facilities that reported their figures in both years provides a strong indicator for the overall year-on-year percentage CO2 trend.
The indicative 2.45% fall in CO2 emissions in 2011 was based on 9,130 plants that reported both 2010 and 2011 emissions, out of a total of 12,988 plants listed under the scheme.
The number of plants reporting 2011 CO2 figures stood at 9,978 as of Monday, or 77% of the total.
The data released Monday exclude Greece and Cyprus, whose 2011 figures have not yet been reported to the EC.
FIGURES SUGGEST TOTAL 2011 EMISSIONS AT 1.891 BILLION MT
Total verified CO2 emissions in 2010 stood at 1.9385 billion mt, according to the EC's figures.
Based on the 2.45% annual fall in 2011 revealed by Monday's data, the projected final CO2 figure for all EU ETS plants for 2011 would be an estimated 1.8911 billion mt, down 47 million mt from 2010, according to Platts analysis.
The partial figures reveal a mixed picture of CO2 output across 29 European countries, which include the 27 EU member states, plus non-members Norway and Liechtenstein.
Top emitter and industrial powerhouse Germany's CO2 emissions fell an estimated 1.15% from the previous year, the figures indicate, while second place UK saw a drop of 7.2% from 2010's levels.
Poland's CO2 emissions were up 1.5% in 2011, with Italy down 0.9%. Number five emitter Spain's emissions increased 8.7%, according to the incomplete data.
Sixth place France had an unusually low number of plants reporting for both 2010 and 2011. The partial data released Monday showed an indicative drop of 18.6% from the previous year in France, although that figure is likely to change as more French plant operators submit their figures to the EC.
POWER SECTOR EMISSIONS FALL 3.1%
In terms of individual sectors in Europe, the power generating sector had by far the biggest annual change in CO2 emissions, showing a drop of 40 million mt or 3.1% in 2011 from the previous year.
CO2 emissions from paper-making facilities fell by around 903,000 mt or 3.2%, while emissions from refining fell by 821,000 mt or 0.7% from the previous year.
Cement sector emissions fell by 272,000 mt or 0.2% on the year, while steel sector emissions were up a modest 130,000 mt or 0.1%, the partial figures show.
While the individual country and sector emissions totals are likely to change slightly as missing plants report their data to the EC between now and May 15, the 2.45% fall in emissions from plants so far reported is considered a strong indicator of the overall year-on-year change for the whole EU ETS.
