The US solar photovoltaic (PV) market is going through major changes due to recent policy decisions. The biggest shift comes from the anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) placed on PV modules and cells from Southeast Asia. These new rules are changing the non-China PV supply chain. In December 2024, the US Department of Commerce revised anti-dumping duties for companies in Vietnam and Malaysia. For example, the duty on Jinko’s products from Vietnam increased from 56.4 percent to 71.74 percent. Boviet’s rate went up from 54.46 percent to 60.02 percent, and Trina, Elite Solar, VSUN, and others saw their rates rise from 54.35 percent to 59.91 percent. On the other hand, Malaysia saw some relief. The rate for Jinko and all others dropped from 17.84 percent to 6.43 percent.
As a result of these changes, exports of PV modules from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia to the US have dropped sharply. The US will still rely on imports for PV cells until domestic production scales up. Because of the tariffs, cell imports are expected to shift away from these four Southeast Asian countries. Malaysian suppliers are likely to become the second-largest source for US cell imports in the short term due to their lower tariffs.
On the US domestic front, First Solar is expected to remain stable and unaffected by these trade issues. It is forecast to account for about 20 percent of the US market. Crystalline silicon module production has increased as cell imports exceeded the 12.5 GW duty-free quota in 2024. Although some local manufacturers started producing cells at the end of 2024, domestic supply is still limited. However, supply is expected to increase in 2025 as more domestic cell production begins.
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Despite government support for domestic manufacturing, the US PV market faces risks. Domestic production is not yet enough to meet demand, so the country will continue to rely on imports in the near future. Imports may come from new manufacturing bases outside the four Southeast Asian countries or from Malaysia, which has lower tariffs. The combination of trade policy uncertainty and slow domestic manufacturing growth has created a risk of module supply shortages. This may cause demand growth in the US solar market to slow down.
Another factor that may affect the US PV market is the future of subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). If these incentives are weakened, many utility-scale solar projects could be delayed or canceled. Additionally, the US government is working on policies targeting Foreign Entities of Concern, which would prevent Chinese-funded companies from receiving IRA subsidies for setting up factories in the US. This could have a big impact on PV manufacturers planning to invest in the US.
In 2024, US PV demand is estimated to reach around 38 to 42 gigawatts (GW). In 2025, demand is expected to stay between 36 and 44 GW. However, growth may slow due to policy risks and a changing competitive landscape.
In contrast, the US energy storage market is growing steadily, especially in the front-of-the-meter (FTM) segment. Energy storage systems (ESS) are essential to stabilize the grid as renewable energy penetration increases. The US energy storage market is expected to grow as global energy storage capacity aims to reach 1500 GW by 2030. California and Texas lead in energy storage installations, with these two states accounting for more than 65 percent of US installations in 2024. California has an average storage duration of 4 hours, while Texas averages about 1.7 hours. Texas has seen a rapid increase in projects and is now one of the fastest-growing energy storage markets in the US.
Government policies are helping the energy storage market grow. The IRA offers a 30 percent Investment Tax Credit for standalone ESS. State-level support is also strong, with California and Texas actively promoting storage projects. However, there is uncertainty about future policies. If energy storage incentives are reduced or canceled under a new administration, the market could be affected. At the same time, rising tariffs may lead to more installations.
Despite the challenges in the US market, global PV and energy storage markets are seeing strong growth, particularly in emerging regions. The Middle East and India are experiencing rapid growth, with PV demand expected to rise by over 30 to 50 percent in 2025. The Middle East energy storage market could grow by over 300 percent, reaching 13 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of installations this year. In India, tendered projects are increasing, and new storage policies point to long-term growth.
Southeast Asia and Africa are also making progress in PV and energy storage, driven by rising green energy investments. These regions, along with India and the Middle East, are expected to offset any slowdown in US demand. They will play a key role in the global energy transition and support long-term growth in PV and energy storage industries.
Companies are advised to keep an eye on policy changes, adjust their strategies, and focus on entering these growing markets to take advantage of new opportunities in the energy sector.
